SLEEPWALKING TO ARMAGEDDON : WORLD DIVIDES OVER THE UKRAINE WAR

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As the US, NATO and Russia escalate the war in the Ukraine, the risk increases for a global nuclear war that could destroy most life on the planet, corresponding to the mythical battle of Armageddon mentioned in the Bible as marking the end of the world.

Our world is at risk, and it is urgent to seek a solution. For this reason, this month we have devoted not one, but two bulletins of CPNN to the issue: Sleepwalking to Armageddon and the World Divides over the Ukraine War
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The phrase “Sleepwalking to Armageddon” is the title of a recent book by Helen Caldicott, and the word “sleepwalking” reappears in the comments of the Portuguese authority Boaventura de Sousa Santos : “One hundred years after World War I, Europe’s leaders are sleepwalking toward a new, all-out war” and in the comments of UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres: “The chances of further escalation and bloodshed keep growing. I fear the world is not sleepwalking into a wider war. I fear it is doing so with its eyes wide open.” 

Sp far the major mass media of Europe, North America and their allies in Japan and Australia have been “obedient” to the escalation politics of their governments and have applauded the arms shipments to Ukraine, pouring gasoline on the fire. Meanwhile, Russia has warned that NATO is entering the war and that the Russian nuclear arsenal is ready for use if they feel they are threatened.

Media and countries in the rest of the world, the Global South, do not obey the American line. In the second CPNN bulletin, we link to publications critical of the US/NATO escalation as well as the Russian threats, in major media of India, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Korea, Lebanon, Kuwait, United Arab Emirates, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Mali, Kenya, Nigeria, South Africa, Costa Rica, Argentina and Turkey. Most of them were among the 101 countries that did not yield to the pressure of the US and Europe to vote against the amendment to the UN resolution on Ukraine that would stop arms shipments to the war.

Media from Indonesia, Korea and Jordan blame the neo-conservatives and the arms industry of the United States for having provoked the war and for sabotaging peace initiatives that could end it.

Media from Bangladesh, Lebanon, United Arab Emirates, Costa Rica, Argentina and Turkey fear that Western escalation may lead to the Third World War and perhaps the destruction of all life on the planet.

Media from Egypt and India say that their countries side with Russia because they are profiting from their economic relations.

Media from Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates, say that the American escalation of the war may lead to the subjugation or destruction of Europe

Media from Kenya and Nigeria blame the escalation of the war by the West for blocking African supplies of food and fuel and for shipping arms that end up by the black market in the hands of African terrorists.

CPNN joins with media of the Global South and with the alternative media and peace movements in Europe and North America to provide an alternative to the obedient mass media of the NATO countries. We agree with the peace movement: in the US,”Peace in Ukraine – No weapons, no money for the Ukraine War” ; in the UK, “Peace talks now – Stop the war in Ukraine”; and in France, demanding all parties involved in the conflict to act decisively for a ceasefire and to take steps to negotiate a long-term peace. And we agree with the peace movement in the United States, that their country should not only stop fueling the war in Ukraine, but also should sign the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons.

Hopefully, thanks to the pressure from the rest of the world and from the peace movements in Europe and North America, a ceasefire can be achieved in Ukraine and we can avoid a nuclear war. As for the Russian side of the war, we can hope that the massive opposition to the war, as we have documented in CPNN, can resist its government’s repression and put pressure on their side to end the war agains their brothers in Ukraine.

Even if we can thus avoid a Third World War, unfortunately the poor Ukraine and its people have suffered so much damage that it will take decades to recover, much like Vietnam, Iraq, Libya, Syria and Afghanistan, not to mention Yemen, Palestine and the war zones of Africa.

Our world is at risk. Let us cultivate a culture of peace!

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SOMNAMBULES VERS ARMAGEDDON : LE MONDE SE DIVISE SUR L’UKRAINE

Alors que les États-Unis, l’OTAN et la Russie intensifient la guerre en Ukraine, le risque augmente d’une guerre nucléaire mondiale qui pourrait détruire la plupart des vies sur la planète, correspondant à la mythique bataille d’Armageddon dans la Bible qui marque la fin du monde.

Notre monde est en danger et il est urgent de chercher une solution. Pour cette raison, ce mois-ci, nous avons consacré non pas un, mais deux bulletins de CPNN à la question : SOMNAMBULES VERS ARMAGEDDON et LE MONDE SE DIVISE SUR L’UKRAINE.

L’expression “somnambules vers armageddon” est le titre d’un livre récent d’Helen Caldicott, et le mot “somnambules” réapparaît dans les propos de l’autorité portugaise, Boaventura de Sousa Santos : “Cent ans après la Première Guerre mondiale, les dirigeants européens sont somnambules vers une nouvelle, guerre totale » et dans les commentaires du secrétaire général de l’ONU, Antonio Guterres : « Les risques d’une nouvelle escalade et d’un bain de sang ne cessent de croître. Je crains que le monde ne soit pas somnambule dans une guerre plus large. Je crains qu’il ne le fasse les yeux grands ouverts.”

Jusqu’à présent, les principaux médias d’Europe, d’Amérique du Nord et leurs alliés au Japon et en Australie ont été “obéissants” à la politique d’escalade de leurs gouvernements et ont applaudi les livraisons d’armes à l’Ukraine, versant de l’huile sur le feu. Pendant ce temps, la Russie a averti que l’OTAN est entrée dans la guerre et que l’arsenal nucléaire russe est prêt à être utilisé s’ils se sentent menacés.

Les médias et les pays du reste du monde, le Sud Global, ne sont pas d’accord. Dans le deuxième bulletin du CPNN, nous renvoyons à des publications critiquant l’escalade US/OTAN ainsi que les menaces russes, dans les principaux médias de l’Inde, de l’Indonésie, du Bangladesh, de la Corée, du Liban, du Koweït, des Émirats arabes unis, de la Jordanie, de l’Arabie saoudite, de l’Égypte, Mali, Kenya, Nigéria, Afrique du Sud, Costa Rica, Argentine et Turquie. La plupart d’entre eux faisaient partie des 101 pays qui n’ont pas cédé à la pression des États-Unis et de l’Europe pour voter contre l’amendement à la résolution de l’ONU sur l’Ukraine qui arrêterait les livraisons d’armes à la guerre.

Les médias d’Indonésie, de Corée et de Jordanie accusent les néo-conservateurs et l’industrie de l’armement des États-Unis d’avoir provoqué la guerre et d’avoir saboté les initiatives de paix qui pourraient y mettre fin.

Les médias du Bangladesh, du Liban, des Émirats arabes unis, du Costa Rica, d’Argentine et de Turquie craignent que l’escalade occidentale ne conduise à la Troisième Guerre mondiale et peut-être à la destruction de toute vie sur la planète.

Les médias égyptiens et indiens disent que leurs pays se rangent du côté de la Russie parce qu’ils profitent de leurs relations économiques.

Les médias du Koweït et des Émirats arabes unis affirment que l’escalade américaine de la guerre pourrait conduire à l’assujettissement ou à la destruction de l’Europe

Les médias du Kenya et du Nigeria accusent l’escalade de la guerre par l’Occident de bloquer les approvisionnements africains en nourriture et en carburant et d’expédier des armes qui finissent par le marché noir entre les mains de terroristes africains.

CPNN se joint aux médias des pays du Sud Global et aux médias alternatifs et aux mouvements pacifistes d’Europe et d’Amérique du Nord pour fournir une alternative aux médias de masse qui sont obéissants des pays de l’OTAN. Nous sommes d’accord avec le mouvement pacifiste : aux États-Unis, « Paix en Ukraine – Pas d’armes, pas d’argent pour la guerre d’Ukraine » ; au Royaume-Uni, « Peace talks now – Stop the war in Ukraine » ; et en France, demandant à toutes les parties impliquées dans le conflit d’agir de manière décisive pour un cessez-le-feu et de prendre des mesures pour négocier une paix à long terme. Et nous sommes d’accord avec le mouvement pour la paix aux États-Unis, que leur pays devrait non seulement cesser d’alimenter la guerre en Ukraine, mais devrait également signer le Traité sur l’interdiction des armes nucléaires.

Avec un peu de chance, grâce à la pression du reste du monde et des mouvements pacifistes en Europe et en Amérique du Nord, un cessez-le-feu pourra être obtenu en Ukraine et nous pourrons éviter une guerre nucléaire. Quant au côté russe de la guerre, nous pouvons espérer que l’opposition massive à la guerre, comme nous l’avons documenté dans CPNN, pourra échapper à la répression de son gouvernement et faire pression sur lui pour mettre fin à la guerre contre ses frères en Ukraine.

Même si nous pouvons ainsi éviter une troisième guerre mondiale, malheureusement l’Ukraine a tellement souffert qu’il lui faudra des décennies pour s’en remettre, tout comme le Vietnam, l’Irak, la Libye, la Syrie et l’Afghanistan, sans parler du Yémen, de la Palestine et des zones de guerre d’Afrique.

Notre monde est en danger. Cultivons une culture de la paix !

LULA AND THE CULTURE OF PEACE

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Editor’s note: In the blogs of last August and September , the hope was expressed that Lula de Silva would be elected and that Brazil would take a leadership role for the culture of peace. Following his victory in the October elections, I asked the CPNN representative in Brazil, Herbert Lima, to comment on this. Here is his assessment.

The first and second terms of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula) in Brazil, from 2002 to 2010, were marked by a strong campaign to build a culture of peace in the country. Lula and his Workers’ Party (PT) defended the idea that building a more just and egalitarian society would be fundamental for building a culture of peace.

During his term, Lula implemented policies aimed at reducing poverty and social inequality, such as the Bolsa Família program and raising the minimum wage. These measures had a significant impact on improving the living conditions of millions of Brazilians, contributing to the construction of a fairer and more balanced society.

In addition, Lula also stood out on the international level, seeking to build relations of cooperation and dialogue with countries in Latin America and the world. This posture contributed to the reduction of international tensions and to the promotion of a culture of peace.

Since the end of Lula’s term in 2010, the culture of peace in Brazil has faced difficulty. The subsequent government of Bolsonaro did not prioritize policies aimed at reducing poverty and social inequality, which contributed to increased social tensions and increased violence. In addition, there was an increase in hate speech and intolerance, which threaten the construction of a fairer and more inclusive society.

There was also a change in the country’s international posture, with a distancing from relations of cooperation and dialogue with other countries in Latin America and the world, which may have contributed to the increase in international tensions.

However, it is important to highlight that building a culture of peace is a continuous and challenging process, which requires the action of different sectors of society, and does not depend only on the government. Civil society plays a fundamental role in building a culture of peace, through campaigns and actions aimed at promoting tolerance, solidarity and inclusion, and during this period it did its part, opposing the Bolsonaro government and its policies of dismantling of the institutions of the Lula government.

It is still difficult to accurately predict how the future of the culture of peace in Brazil will be in the coming years, as there is a clear division and political polarization in the current congress. However, it is possible to evaluate the proposals and speeches of the Workers’ Party (PT) and Lula to assess expectations about the culture of peace in the country. (See CPNN article of January 9.)

In general, it is expected that, if Lula has political capital in Congress, he and the PT will again prioritize policies aimed at reducing poverty and social inequality, such as the Bolsa Família program and raising the minimum wage. These measures have the potential to improve the living conditions of the most vulnerable Brazilians and, thus, contribute to building a fairer and more balanced society, fundamental to a culture of peace.

In addition, Lula and the PT are expected to seek to strengthen cooperation and dialogue relations with other countries in Latin America and the world, which may contribute to the reduction of international tensions and to the promotion of a culture of peace. (See CPNN article of January 7.)

However, it is important to remember that building a culture of peace is a complex and challenging process, and that government action is just one of the many pieces of this puzzle. Civil society also plays a fundamental role in this process, through campaigns and actions aimed at promoting tolerance, solidarity and inclusion.

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LULA ET LA CULTURE DE LA PAIX

Note de l’éditeur : Dans les blogs d’août et de septembre derniers, nous exprimions l’espoir que Lula de Silva serait élu et que le Brésil assumerait un rôle de leadership pour la culture de la paix. Après sa victoire aux élections d’octobre, j’ai demandé au représentant du CPNN au Brésil, Herbert Lima, de commenter cela. Voici son évaluation.

Les premier et deuxième mandats du président Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula) au Brésil, de 2002 à 2010, ont été marqués par une forte campagne pour construire une culture de la paix dans le pays. Lula et son Parti des travailleurs (PT) ont défendu l’idée que la construction d’une société plus juste et égalitaire serait fondamentale pour construire une culture de la paix.

Pendant son mandat, Lula a mis en œuvre des politiques visant à réduire la pauvreté et les inégalités sociales, telles que le programme Bolsa Família et l’augmentation du salaire minimum. Ces mesures ont eu un impact significatif sur l’amélioration des conditions de vie de millions de Brésiliens, contribuant à la construction d’une société plus juste et plus équilibrée.

En outre, Lula s’est également distingué au niveau international, cherchant à établir des relations de coopération et de dialogue avec les pays d’Amérique latine et du monde. Cette posture a contribué à la réduction des tensions internationales et à la promotion d’une culture de la paix.

Depuis la fin du mandat de Lula en 2010, la culture de la paix au Brésil est en difficulté. Le gouvernement Bolsonaro qui a suivi n’a pas donné la priorité aux politiques visant à réduire la pauvreté et les inégalités sociales, ce qui a contribué à accroître les tensions sociales et l’augmentation de la violence. De plus, il y a eu une augmentation des discours de haine et d’intolérance, qui menacent la construction d’une société plus juste et plus inclusive.

Il y a également eu un changement dans la posture internationale du pays, avec un éloignement des relations de coopération et de dialogue avec les autres pays d’Amérique latine et du monde, ce qui a pu contribuer à l’augmentation des tensions internationales.

Cependant, il est important de souligner que la construction d’une culture de la paix est un processus continu et difficile, qui nécessite l’action de différents secteurs de la société et ne dépend pas uniquement du gouvernement. La société civile joue un rôle fondamental dans la construction d’une culture de la paix, à travers des campagnes et des actions visant à promouvoir la tolérance, la solidarité et l’inclusion, et pendant cette période, elle a fait sa part, s’opposant au gouvernement Bolsonaro et à ses politiques de démantèlement des institutions de gouvernement de Lula.

Il est encore difficile de prédire avec précision comment sera l’avenir de la culture de la paix au Brésil dans les années à venir, car il existe une division et une polarisation politiques au sein du congrès actuel. Cependant, il est possible d’évaluer les propositions et les discours du Parti des travailleurs (PT) et de Lula pour évaluer les attentes concernant la culture de la paix dans le pays. (Voir article CPNN du 9 janvier.)

En général, on s’attend à ce que, si Lula a un capital politique au Congrès, lui et le PT donneront à nouveau la priorité aux politiques visant à réduire la pauvreté et les inégalités sociales, telles que le programme Bolsa Família et l’augmentation du salaire minimum. Ces mesures ont le potentiel d’améliorer les conditions de vie des Brésiliens les plus vulnérables et, ainsi, de contribuer à la construction d’une société plus juste et plus équilibrée, fondamentale pour une culture de la paix.

En outre, Lula et le PT devraient chercher à renforcer les relations de coopération et de dialogue avec d’autres pays d’Amérique latine et du monde, ce qui peut contribuer à la réduction des tensions internationales et à la promotion d’une culture de paix. (Voir article CPNN du 7 janvier.)

Cependant, il est important de se rappeler que la construction d’une culture de la paix est un processus complexe et difficile, et que l’action gouvernementale n’est qu’une des nombreuses pièces de ce puzzle. La société civile joue également un rôle fondamental dans ce processus, à travers des campagnes et des actions visant à promouvoir la tolérance, la solidarité et l’inclusion.

MEDIATION AND RESTORATIVE JUSTICE IN LATIN AMERICA

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Latin America continues to advance towards a culture of peace. Last month we reviewed progressive results of elections in Mexico, Chile, Peru and Colombia and recalled that progressive government has returned to Bolivia following the coup d’etat against Evo Morales, and that Lula da Silva is favored to win the presidency of Brazil in next month’s election.

Latin America has been the leading edge in the transition to a culture of peace as we have remarked in this blog since 2013.

Recalling that an earlier wave of progressive governments in Latin America was suppressed by North American imperialism in collaboration with right-wing forces, I remarked that even if this new “Latin American spring” is suppressed, that is not the last word.  As I wrote eight years ago  during a similar “progressive wave, “even if Latin America is blocked from installing a culture of peace at national levels in its own zone, its attempts to move in this direction will have a lasting effect on the consciousness of its citizens and we may be confident that it is there, in consciousness, that history will ultimately be determined.”

This month we consider the progress towards a culture of peace on another level. The progress at a local level in mediation and restorative justice adds to this analysis of Latin America and to the possibility that it can achieve a culture of peace.

Mediation: The Eighth World Mediation Congress took place in Sucre, Bolivia. More than 2,000 people came from Germany, Argentina, Colombia, Chile, Spain, France, Mexico, Nicaragua, Peru, Portugal and Uruguay.

Restorative justice: This plays a major role in the peace process of Colombia. Former guerrillas, victims and public forces have created dialogue tables and worked together on local projects that provide reparation for the damages caused by the war. This month we see the results of a model program that has taken place in Viotá (Cundinamarca).

Latin America has been the world leader in these local peace processes for many years now. In CPNN since 2015, 27 of the 35 articles about mediation have come from Latin America and since 2016, 17 or the 19 articles about restorative justice have come from Latin America. In addition to the initiatves listed above from Bolivia and Colombia, here is a list of those from Latin America in the past year alone.

July 12, 2022: Honduras: “Mesas de seguridad ciudadana” in 298 municipalities

January 18, 2022: Centers for Mediation, Conciliation and Restorative Justice in the State of Mexico

January 18, 2022: Argentina : Federal Network of Centers for Community Mediation and Training in School Mediation with an Example from Province of Buenos Aires

January 18, 2022: Panama : Management results in 2021 of the Coordination Office of the Community Mediation Program

January 8, 2022: Brazil: Practices that promote a culture of peace at Funase had good results in 2021

January 8, 2022: Dominican Republic: 11 Thousand People Train in Conflict Resolution and Culture of Peace in 2021

November 18, 2021:Mexico: Municipal Mediation Unit of the City of Merida to promote a Culture of Peace

November 18, 2021: Petrópolis, Brazil : III International Restorative Justice Week will open next Monday

In the preceding years, initiatives in mediation and restorative justice were also recorded from Jamaica:, Peru and Guatemala.

In the case of Brazil, as we have followed in CPNN, the practice of restorative justice has been established throughout the entire judicial system.

In many of these cases we see that the local initiatives are linked to other initiatives of mediation and restorative justice both nationally and internationally. We have noted above that the recent mediation congress in Bolivia attracted participants from 8 Latin American countries. Similarly, the Latin Alerican Congress of Restorative Justice in June 2021 attracted virtual exhibitors from Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Brazil, Peru, Honduras, Uruguay, Bolivia, Guatemala, and the Dominican Republic.

In conclusion, a culture of peace needs to be anchored at the local level and linked internationally, in order to survive the interventions of the global culture of war, headed by the American empire, that will not allow the establishment of culture of peace at any national level. For example, in an earlier blog, Advice to Colombia for the Peace Process , I recalled the local peace process developed in South Africa after the peace accords in that country and remarked that a similar local network was needed in Colombia. The development of restorative justice in Colombia contributes to this.

Considering all the above, Latin America continues to be the leading edge in the transition to a culture of peace.

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MÉDIATION ET JUSTICE RESTAURATRICE EN AMÉRIQUE LATINE

L’Amérique latine continue de progresser vers une culture de la paix. Le mois dernier, nous avons passé en revue les résultats progressistes des élections au Mexique, au Chili, au Pérou et en Colombie et rappelé que le gouvernement progressiste est revenu en Bolivie après le coup d’État contre Evo Morales, et que Lula da Silva est favori pour remporter la présidence du Brésil au cours de la prochaine l’élection du mois.

L’Amérique latine a été à l’avant-garde de la transition vers une culture de la paix, comme nous le remarquons dans ce blog depuis 2013.

Rappelant qu’une précédente vague de gouvernements progressistes en Amérique latine a été supprimée par l’impérialisme nord-américain en collaboration avec les forces de droite, j’ai fait remarquer que même si ce nouveau « printemps latino-américain » est supprimé, ce n’est pas le dernier mot. Comme je l’écrivais il y a huit ans lors d’une “vague progressiste” similaire, “même si l’Amérique latine est empêchée d’installer une culture de paix au niveau national dans sa propre zone, ses tentatives d’aller dans cette direction auront un effet durable sur la conscience de ses citoyens et nous pouvons être sûrs que c’est là, dans la conscience, que l’histoire sera finalement déterminée.

Ce mois-ci, nous examinons les progrès vers une culture de la paix à un autre niveau. Les progrès au niveau local dans la médiation et la justice réparatrice ajoutent à cette analyse de l’Amérique latine et à la possibilité qu’elle puisse atteindre une culture de la paix.

Médiation : Le huitième Congrès mondial de la médiation a eu lieu à Sucre, en Bolivie. Plus de 2 000 personnes sont venues d’Allemagne, d’Argentine, de Colombie, du Chili, d’Espagne, de France, du Mexique, du Nicaragua, du Pérou, du Portugal et d’Uruguay.

Justice réparatrice : Celle-ci joue un rôle majeur dans le processus de paix en Colombie. Anciens maquisards, victimes et forces publiques ont créé des tables de dialogue et ont travaillé ensemble sur des projets locaux qui permettent de réparer les dégâts causés par la guerre. Ce mois-ci, nous voyons les résultats d’un programme modèle qui a eu lieu à Viotá (Cundinamarca).

L’Amérique latine est depuis de nombreuses années le leader mondial de ces processus de paix locaux. Dans CPNN depuis 2015, 27 des 35 articles sur la médiation proviennent d’Amérique latine et depuis 2016, 17 ou 19 articles sur la justice restaurative proviennent d’Amérique latine. En plus des initiatives énumérées ci-dessus de Bolivie et de Colombie, voici une liste de celles d’Amérique latine au cours de la dernière année seulement.

12 juillet 2022 : Honduras : « Mesas de seguridad ciudadana » dans 298 municipalités

18 janvier 2022 : Centres de médiation, de conciliation et de justice réparatrice dans l’État de Mexico

18 janvier 2022 : Argentine : Réseau fédéral de centres de médiation communautaire et de formation à la médiation scolaire avec un exemple de la province de Buenos Aires

18 janvier 2022 : Panama : Résultats de la gestion en 2021 du Bureau de Coordination du Programme de Médiation Communautaire

8 janvier 2022 : Brésil : Les pratiques qui promeuvent une culture de la paix à Funase ont eu de bons résultats en 2021

8 janvier 2022 : République dominicaine : 11 000 personnes se forment à la résolution des conflits et à la culture de la paix en 2021

18 novembre 2021 : Mexique : Unité municipale de médiation de la ville de Mérida pour promouvoir une culture de la paix

18 novembre 2021 : Petrópolis, Brésil : La IIIe Semaine internationale de la justice réparatrice s’ouvrira lundi prochain

Au cours des années précédentes, des initiatives de médiation et de justice réparatrice ont également été enregistrées de Jamaïque:, Pérou and Guatemala.

Dans le cas du Brésil, comme nous l’avons suivi dans CPNN, la pratique de la justice réparatrice s’est établie dans tout le système judiciaire.

Dans nombre de ces cas, nous constatons que les initiatives locales sont liées à d’autres initiatives de médiation et de justice réparatrice tant au niveau national qu’international. Nous avons noté plus haut que le récent congrès de médiation en Bolivie a attiré des participants de 8 pays d’Amérique latine. De même, le Congrès latino-alérican de la justice réparatrice en juin 2021 a attiré des exposants virtuels d’Argentine, du Chili, de Colombie, du Mexique, du Brésil, du Pérou, du Honduras, d’Uruguay, de Bolivie, du Guatemala et de la République dominicaine.

En conclusion, une culture de paix doit être ancrée au niveau local et liée au niveau international, afin de survivre aux interventions de la culture de guerre mondiale, dirigée par l’empire américain, qui ne permettra à aucun moment l’établissement d’une culture de paix. niveau national. Par exemple, dans un blog précédent, Conseils à la Colombie pour le processus de paix, j’ai rappelé le processus de paix local développé en Afrique du Sud après les accords de paix dans ce pays et j’ai fait remarquer qu’un réseau local similaire était nécessaire en Colombie. Le développement de la justice réparatrice en Colombie y contribue.

Compte tenu de tout ce qui précède, l’Amérique latine continue d’être à l’avant-garde de la transition vers une culture de la paix.

ARAB SPRING, RUSSIAN SPRING, LATIN AMERICA SPRING?

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A few years ago I was encouraged by the movement of the Arab Spring, writing in this blog that “the Arab spring and the ongoing democratic revolutions in the Arab countries are providing an important new momentum towards a culture of peace.”

And in the spring of this year I was encourged by the anti-war movement in the Russian Federation, writing here that “Tens of thousands of Russians are protesting the war and their voices cannot be silenced.”

Unfortunately, both the Arab Spring and the “Russian Spring” were effectively suppressed by the forces of the culture of war.

This month in CPNN, I describe another regional movement for the culture of peace, taking place throughout Latin America? Can it survive?

The role of Lula da Silva is especially important in the “Latin American spring”. He is leading in the polls for the Presidential election to take place in October. But Brazil has a history of military coup d’etats, kangaroo courts and assassinations, and already one of the candidates alongside Lula has been assassinated. His political party, the Workers Party of Brazil, is resisting the menace, even providing workshops on the culture of peace, but will they succeed?

However, even if the “Latin American spring” is suppressed, that is not the last word. As I wrote eight years ago during a similar “progressive wave” in Latin America, “even if Latin America is blocked from installing a culture of peace at national levels in its own zone, its attempts to move in this direction will have a lasting effect on the consciousness of its citizens and we may be confident that it is there, in consciousness, that history will ultimately be determined.”

Movements can be suppressed, but the people that have been mobilized do not disappear.

For example, when we started the culture of peace program at UNESCO in the 1990’s, there was a meeting in which those of us most involved recalled how we had all been inspired by our participation in the movement of the 60’s against the war iin Vietnam. As an American, I had experienced 1968 while living in Italy. Two of my colleagues from Latin America had experienced 1968 while living in Europe.

Consciousness is not easy to measure, but it becomes a determining factor at certain moments of history when the dominant regime (i.e. the culture of war) collapses from its own contradictions. This occurred in the 60’s with the war in Vietnam, at the end of the 80’s with the collapse of the Soviet Empire.

As we approach another such moment, with the imminent collapse of the American Empire, we should call upon the veterans of the Arab Spring, the Russian Spring, and now a Latin American Spring to take up again their activism and work for the transition to a culture of peace.

Returning to that moment when we started the Culture of Peace initiative at UNESCO, perhaps we can learn from that experience.

It was a special moment in history because the Soviet Empire had recently collapsed and it seemed that peace was possible. I wrote the following words for the 1989 meeting in Yamoussoukro, Cote d’Ivoire that launched the culture of peace at UNESCO:

The time has come to abolish violence
and to create a culture of peace,
to re-order the world economy,
to harmonize our relation to nature.`

The ground is ready
and the first sign of change can be seen.
Disarmament is no longer the image of a dream,
but it is shown as a scene on the evening news
and carried as a fact to the furthest village.

Two elements were key: we were working at UNESCO, a global international organization dedicated to “peace in the minds of men”; and the new Director-General of UNESCO, Federico Mayor, was a man of wisdom and courage who dared to demand that UNESCO fulfill its mandate for peace.

When the American Empire collapses, there will be a similar window of opportunity. I hope that there will be a new Director-General of UNESCO who has participated in the Arab, Russian or Latin American spring.

* * * * *

PRINTEMPS ARABE, PRINTEMPS RUSSE, PRINTEMPS LATINO-AMÉRICAIN ?

Il y a dix ans, j’ai été encouragé par le mouvement du Printemps arabe, écrivant que “le printemps arabe et les révolutions démocratiques en cours dans les pays arabes fournissent un nouvel élan important vers une culture de la paix”.

Et au printemps de cette année, j’ai été encouragé par le mouvement anti-guerre dans la Fédération de Russie, écrivant que “des dizaines de milliers de Russes protestent contre la guerre et leurs voix ne peuvent être réduites au silence”.

Malheureusement, le printemps arabe et le « printemps russe » ont été étoufféés par les forces de la culture de guerre.

Ce mois-ci dans CPNN, je décris un autre mouvement régional pour la culture de la paix, qui se déroule dans toute l’Amérique latine ? Peut-il survivre ?

Le rôle de Lula da Silva est particulièrement important dans le “printemps latino-américain”. Il est en tête des sondages pour l’élection présidentielle qui aura lieu en octobre. Mais le Brésil a une histoire de coups d’État militaires, de tribunaux fantoches et d’assassinats, et déjà l’un des candidats aux côtés de Lula a été assassiné. Son parti politique, le Parti des travailleurs du Brésil, résiste à la menace, proposant même des ateliers sur la culture de la paix, mais réussiront-ils ?

Cependant, même si le “printemps latino-américain” est supprimé, ce n’est pas le dernier mot. Comme je l’écrivais il y a huit ans lors d’une “vague progressiste” similaire en Amérique latine, “même si l’Amérique latine est empêchée d’installer une culture de la paix au niveau national dans sa propre zone, ses tentatives d’aller dans cette direction auront un effet durable sur la conscience de ses citoyens et nous pouvons être sûrs que c’est là, dans la conscience, que l’histoire sera finalement déterminée.”

Les mouvements peuvent être réprimés, mais les personnes mobilisées ne disparaissent pas.

Lorsque nous avons lancé le programme de culture de la paix à l’UNESCO dans les années 1990, il y a eu une réunion au cours de laquelle les plus impliqués d’entre nous ont rappelé comment nous avions tous été inspirés par notre participation au mouvement des années 60 contre la guerre au Vietnam. En tant qu’Américain, j’avais vécu 1968 en vivant en Italie. Deux de mes collègues d’Amérique latine avaient vécu 1968 alors qu’ils vivaient en Europe.

Fondamentalement, ce qui est essentiel pour le progrès historique, c’est la conscience des militants sociaux. La conscience n’est pas facile à mesurer, mais elle devient un facteur déterminant à certains moments de l’histoire où le régime dominant (c’est-à-dire la culture de la guerre) s’effondre de ses propres contradictions. Cela s’est passé dans les années 60 avec la guerre du Vietnam, à la fin des années 80 avec l’effondrement de l’empire soviétique.

Alors que nous approchons d’un autre moment de ce genre, avec l’effondrement imminent de l’empire américain, nous devrions appeler les vétérans du printemps arabe, du printemps russe et maintenant du printemps latino-américain à reprendre leur activisme et à travailler pour la transition vers un culture de la paix.

Revenant au moment où nous avons lancé l’initiative Culture de la paix à l’UNESCO, nous pouvons peut-être apprendre de cette expérience.

C’était un moment spécial de l’histoire; l’Empire soviétique s’était récemment effondré et il semblait que la paix était possible. J’ai écrit les mots suivants pour la réunion de 1989 à Yamoussoukro, en Côte d’Ivoire, qui a lancé la culture de la paix à l’UNESCO :

Le temps est venu d’abolir la violence
et de créer une culture de paix,
de réordonner l’économie mondiale,
de mettre en harmonie notre rapport à la nature.

Le terrain es prêt
et les premiers signes de changement sont visibles.
Le désarmement n’est plus l’image d’un rêve,
mais apparaît comme une scène au informations du soir
qui se déploie comme un fait dans le village le plus reculé.

Deux éléments étaient essentiels : nous travaillions à l’UNESCO, une organisation internationale mondiale dédiée à « la paix dans l’esprit des hommes » ; et le nouveau Directeur général de l’UNESCO, Federico Mayor, était un homme de sagesse et de courage qui a osé exiger que l’UNESCO remplisse son mandat pour la paix.

Lorsque l’Empire américain s’effondrera, il y aura une fenêtre d’opportunité similaire. J’espère qu’il y aura un nouveau Directeur-général de l’UNESCO qui a participé au printemps arabe, russe ou latino-américain.

Invasion of Venezuela: Is it Operation Just Cause, Bay of Pigs or Wag the Dog?

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On April 1 (April Fools Day) President Trump announced that the United States will send a military force to Venezuela, claiming that it was needed to stop drug trafficking by their President Maduro. He was followed by US Defense Secretary Mark Esper, who said the task force included Navy destroyers and littoral combat ships, Coast Guard Cutters, P.A. patrol aircraft, and elements of an Army security force assistance brigade. General Mark Milley, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, added that there are “thousands of sailors, Coast Guardsman, soldiers, airmen, Marines involved in this operation.”

What are the historical precedents for this?

Operation Just Cause. In 1989, the United States invaded Panama and arrested its President Noriega on drug charges, as described in detail by Wikipedia. According to a video by Telesur, over 2,000 people were killed and 20,000 displaced in the extensive military operation. Apparently there was little resistance by the Panamanian military. The United Nations General Assembly adopted a resolution stating that the U.S. invasion was a “flagrant violation of international law.

Bay of Pigs. In 1961, over 1400 paramilitaries invaded Cuba at a point called the Bay of Pigs. The operation, covertly financed and directed by the U.S. government, was a failure. The invading force were defeated within three days by the Cuban Revolutionary Armed Forces.

Wag the Dog In 1997, the film “Wag the Dog” portrays a “war” that is fabricated inside Hollywood sets to distract voters from a presidential sex scandal and  covered by the mass media as if true. In the film the trick works and the President is re-elected as a result.

Which of these precedents most resembles the present situation?

For the moment, it would seem most similar to Wag the Dog. One month after Trump’s announcement, Venezuela captured a small gang of mercenaries led by an American that tried to invade Venezuela. It seems that the invasion attempt was not a very serious attempt in the sense that it had no chance to succeed. However, it captured the attention of the mass media as if Trump was actually attacking Venezuela. And certainly the political problems of President Donald Trump are as great or greater than those of Bill Clinton that inspired the 1997 film. Trump has even more reason to stage a fake war in order to divert attention from his failures.

If there is going to be an invasion of Venezuela like that of Operation Just Cause, we should expect the approach of the US Navy’s warships in the region, especially the Aircraft Carrier Strike Group Truman and the Amphibious Assault Ship Iwo Jima. As of this moment (end of May), according to the internet fleet tracker, they have not moved towards Venezuela, and in fact they are hampered by the potential for an epidemic of coronavirus in their crew, according to the head of the Southern Command.

But there is a long time between now and the elections scheduled for November. And the threats continue. In addition to the invasion by mercenaries mentioned above, consider the following. If you search the internet for “Vigo cocaine”, you will find many articles dating from the beginning of May about the interception of a boat off the coast of Vigo, Portugal, that was loaded with cocaine said by some sources to be coming from Venezuela. But look carefully at the sources. The articles saying that the cocaine came from Venezuela quote unnamed US sources, or, in some cases, they quote James Story, director of the Venezuela Affairs Unit at the U.S. Embassy in Colombia. This information (misinformation?) seems designed to support the Trump administration’s claim that Venezuela is heavily involved in the drug trade which is their excuse for threatening military action, despite the fact that independent studies contradict Trump’s claim.

Finally, if Trump does order an invasion of Venezuela, it may resemble the Bay of Pigs more than Operation Just Cause. The Veneuzuelan military, aided by Russian equipment and advisors, and backed, at least verbally, by China, is a force more similar to the Cuban Revolutionary Armed Forces in 1961 than the Panamanian forces in 1989.

The Bay of Pigs preceded by a year the Cuban Missile Crisis which threatened a nuclear war between the United States and the Soviet Union. As for an invasion of Venezuela at this time, could it not also threaten escalation into a nuclear war even more dangerous that a nuclear war would have been in 1962!

At CPNN, following the April 1 announcement by Trump we sent an email to our mailing list saying the following in part: “The threat of Trump to make war against Venezuela demands a special and unique response from all of us. . . . If you are in a country that is in NATO or the UN Security Council, I suggest you contact your government with a message similar to the following: Please use your influence in the [UN Security Council] [direction of NATO] to prevent Trump from starting a war with Venezuela which could lead to World War III because of the support to Venezuela from Russia and China. Trump is trying to divert attention from the medical and economic crisis but he is producing a crisis that is even more dangerous.”

We don’t yet know if this is a case of Wag the Dog, or an April Fool’s joke, but the danger still exists that this could be a repeat of Operation Just Cause or the Bay of Pigs, which demands that we do all we can to prevent it.

* * * * *

Invasion du Venezuela: est-ce l’”Opération Just Cause”, la baie des Cochons ou “Wag the Dog”?

Le 1er avril (poissons d’avril), le président Trump a annoncé que les États-Unis enverraient une force militaire au Venezuela, faisant l’accusation qu’il était nécessaire parce que le trafic de drogue est organisé par leur président Maduro. Il a été suivi par le secrétaire américain à la Défense Mark Esper, qui a déclaré que le Groupe d’attaque comprenait des destroyers de la Marine et des navires de combat littoraux, Coast Guard Cutters, des avions de patrouille et des éléments d’une brigade d’assistance des forces de sécurité de l’armée. Le général Mark Milley, président des chefs d’état-major interarmées, a ajouté que «des milliers de marins, de gardes-côtes, de soldats, d’aviateurs et de marines sont impliqués dans cette opération».

Quels sont les précédents historiques à ce sujet?

Opération Just Cause. En 1989, les États-Unis ont envahi le Panama et arrêté son président Noriega sur des accusations de drogue, comme il l’est écrit dans Wikipedia. Selon une vidéo de Telesur, plus de 2 000 personnes ont été tuées et 20 000 déplacées dans le cadre de cette vaste opération militaire. Apparemment, il y avait peu de résistance de la part des militaires panaméens. L’Assemblée générale des Nations Unies a adopté une résolution déclarant que l’invasion américaine était une “violation flagrante du droit international”.

Baie des Cochons. En 1961, plus de 1400 paramilitaires ont envahi Cuba à un endroit appelé la baie des Cochons. L’opération, secrètement financée et dirigée par le gouvernement américain, a été un échec. La force d’invasion a été vaincue en trois jours par les Forces armées révolutionnaires cubaines.

Wag the Dog. En 1997, le film “Wag the Dog” dépeint une “guerre” qui est fabriquée à l’intérieur des décors hollywoodiens pour distraire les électeurs d’un scandale sexuel présidentiel et couverte par les médias comme si elle était vraie. Dans le film, l’astuce fonctionne et le président est réélu en conséquence.

Lequel de ces précédents ressemble le plus à la situation actuelle?

Pour le moment, cela semble plus similaire à “Wag the Dog”. Un mois après l’annonce de Trump, le Venezuela a capturé une petite bande de mercenaires dirigée par un Américain qui a tenté d’envahir le Venezuela. Il semble que la tentative d’invasion n’ait pas été une tentative très sérieuse dans le sens où elle n’avait aucune chance de réussir. Cependant, cela a attiré l’attention des médias de masse comme si Trump attaquait réellement le Venezuela. Et certainement les problèmes politiques du président Donald Trump sont aussi grands ou plus grands que ceux de Bill Clinton qui a inspiré le film de 1997. Trump a encore plus de raisons de déclencher une fausse guerre afin de détourner l’attention de ses échecs.

S’il doit y avoir une invasion du Venezuela comme celle de l’Opération Just Cause, nous devons nous attendre à l’approche des navires de guerre de la marine américaine dans la région, en particulier du groupe aéronaval Truman et du navire d’assaut amphibie Iwo Jima. Selon le chef du Southern Command, ils ne se sont pas déplacés vers le Venezuela et ils sont en fait gênés par le potentiel d’une épidémie de coronavirus dans leur équipage (fin mai). .

Mais il y a beaucoup de temps entre maintenant et les élections prévues pour novembre. Et les menaces continuent. En plus de l’invasion de mercenaires mentionnée ci-dessus, considérez ce qui suit. Si vous recherchez sur Internet “Vigo cocaïne”, vous trouverez de nombreux articles datant de début mai sur l’interception d’un bateau au large de Vigo, au Portugal, qui était chargé de cocaïne qui, selon certaines sources, proviendrait du Venezuela . Mais regardez attentivement les sources. Les articles disant que la cocaïne provenait du Venezuela citent des sources américaines anonymes ou, dans certains cas, citent James Story, directeur de l’Unité des affaires du Venezuela à l’ambassade des États-Unis en Colombie. Ces informations (désinformation?) semblent conçues pour soutenir l’affirmation de l’administration Trump selon laquelle le Venezuela est fortement impliqué dans le trafic de drogue, ce qui est leur excuse pour menacer une action militaire, malgré le fait que des études indépendantes contredisent l’affirmation de Trump.

Enfin, si Trump ordonne une invasion du Venezuela, cela pourrait ressembler davantage à la baie des Cochons qu’à l’Opération Just Cause. L’armée vénézuelienne, aidée par du matériel et des conseillers russes et appuyée, au moins verbalement, par la Chine, est une force plus similaire aux Forces armées révolutionnaires cubaines en 1961 qu’aux forces panaméennes en 1989.

La baie des Cochons a précédé d’un an la crise des missiles cubains qui menaçait une guerre nucléaire entre les États-Unis et l’Union soviétique. Quant à une invasion du Venezuela en ce moment, ne pourrait-elle pas aussi menacer l’escalade vers une guerre nucléaire encore plus dangereuse qu’une guerre nucléaire l’aurait été en 1962!

À CPNN, à la suite de l’annonce faite le 1er avril par Trump, nous avons envoyé un e-mail à notre liste de diffusion disant en partie : “La menace de Trump de faire la guerre au Venezuela exige une réponse spéciale et unique de nous tous … Si vous êtes dans un pays membre de l’OTAN ou du Conseil de sécurité des Nations Unies, je vous suggère de contacter votre gouvernement avec un message semblable au suivant: Veuillez utiliser votre influence au [Conseil de sécurité des Nations Unies] [direction de l’OTAN] pour empêcher Trump de commencer un guerre contre le Venezuela qui pourrait conduire à la troisième guerre mondiale en raison du soutien au Venezuela de la Russie et de la Chine. Trump essaie de détourner l’attention de la crise médicale et économique, mais il produit une crise encore plus dangereuse. ”

Nous ne savons pas encore s’il s’agit d’un cas de Wag the Dog ou d’un poisson d’avril, mais le danger existe toujours que ce soit une répétition de l’Opération Just Cause ou de la baie des Cochons, qui exige que nous fassions tout ce que nous pouvons pour l’empêcher.

Has the crash arrived?

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The headlines provide abundant details about economic shutdowns in order to slow the spread of the COV-19 virus.

But behind the headlines, there is another story more important in the long run: the global economy is a house of cards based on speculation and military spending. It seems likely that the house of cards will come crashing down as a result of the global economic shutdown.

The details of how this will come about in economic terms are difficult to predict since there are so many interacting factors.

But even more important is how this can play out in political repercussions and opportunities.

Will it provide us with the opportunity to make the transition from the culture of war to a culture of peace?

In the novella that I wrote ten years ago, I foresaw a global economic crash in the year 2020, which opened the possibility for this radical transformation.

Ultimately the result depends on our coordinated strategy and tactics, but it also depends on having the necessary communication and transportation mechanisms that allow our coordination and our actions.

Will we be able to travel and meet face to face? Already there are are severe travel restructions. In the novella I wrote: “Don’t forget that in 2021, airline flights around the world were running at less than 30% of pre-crash levels, and to get a ticket under ordinary circumstances you needed to reserve six months in advance and hope that the airline would stay in business that long. “

Can we depend on internet communications as the crash develops? In the novella, I predict that internet communication will also be curtailed, and I propose that alternative electronic communication will fill the void. I am not an expert in this domain, but perhaps some who read this blog may send me suggestions.

In the novella I considered that in the first few years after the global economic crash, the priority was to mobilize millions of people to resist the attempts by the rich to impose a “fascist solution” like that imposed last century in the Great Depression. I think this priority is appropriate today, since already in recent years we are seeing signs of this danger with the rise to power of authoritarian heads of state such as Trump, Bolsonaro, Duterte, Erdogan and Orban, not to mention the moves of Putin and Xi Jinping to retain power without elections.

The turning point, according to the novella, was the declaration by representatives from cities around the world meeting in Porto Alegre, Brazil:

    When in the course of history it
    becomes evident that the old order has
    failed and it becomes possible through
    the development and sharing of a new
    vision that power be transferred from
    the nation-state with its culture of war
    to a new order based on the culture of
    peace, it is the right and duty of those
    who have been elected to represent the
    people on the local and regional level
    to take up the higher responsibility of
    world governance.

Readers of this blog will recognize here the proposal in last month’s blog for a Mayor’s Security Council.

I don’t know if it will be in Porto Alegre, but Latin America seems a logical place to start the process towards a new world order. After all, it was the World Social Forums born in Brazil that gave us our slogan: “Another world is possible.”

* * * * *

Le crash est-il arrivé?

Les titres fournissent de nombreux détails sur les fermetures économiques afin de ralentir la propagation du virus COV-19.

Mais derrière les titres, il y a une autre histoire plus importante à long terme: l’économie mondiale est un château de cartes basé sur la spéculation et les dépenses militaires. Il semble probable que ce château de cartes s’écroulera à la suite de l’arrêt économique mondial.

Les détails économiques de la façon dont cela se produira sont difficiles à prévoir car il existe de nombreux facteurs d’interaction.

Mais e plus important encore est de savoir comment cela peut se traduire par les répercussions et les opportunités politiques.

Cela nous donnera-t-il la possibilité de faire la transition de la culture de la guerre à une culture de la paix?

Dans le roman que j’ai écrit il y a dix ans , je prévoyais un krach économique mondial en 2020, qui a ouvert la possibilité de cette transformation radicale.

En fin de compte, le résultat dépend de notre stratégie et de nos tactiques coordonnées, mais il dépend également de la disponibilité des mécanismes de communication et de transport qui sont nécessaires pour notre coordination et pour nos actions.

Dans l’avenir pourrons-nous encore voyager et faire des réunions? Il y a déjà de sévères restrictions de voyage. Dans le roman, j’écrivait: “N’oubliez pas qu’en 2021, les vols des compagnies aériennes à travers le monde fonctionnaient à moins de 30% des niveaux d’avant le crash, et pour obtenir un billet dans des circonstances ordinaires, vous deviez réserver six mois à l’avance espérons que la compagnie aérienne ne soit pas en faillite.”

Pouvons-nous dépendre des communications Internet à mesure que le crash se développe? Dans la roman, je prédis que la communication sur Internet sera également réduite, et je propose que d’autres systemes de communication électronique alternative comblent le vide. Je ne suis pas un expert dans ce domaine, mais peut-être que certains qui liront ce blog pourront m’envoyer des suggestions.

Dans la roman, j’ai considéré que dans les premières années après le krach économique mondial, la priorité était de mobiliser des millions de personnes pour résister aux tentatives des riches d’imposer une “solution fasciste” comme celle imposée au siècle dernier dans la Grande Dépression. Je pense que cette priorité est appropriée aujourd’hui, car déjà au cours des dernières années, nous voyons des signes de ce danger avec la montée en puissance de chefs d’État autoritaires tels que Trump, Bolsonaro, Duterte, Erdogan et Orban, sans parler des mouvements de Poutine et de Xi Jinping à conserver le pouvoir sans élections.

Selon la roman, le tournant a été la déclaration des représentants des villes du monde entier réunis à Porto Alegre, au Brésil:

    Au cours de l’histoire,
    il devient évident que l’ancien ordre
    a échoué et il devient possible grâce
    au développement et au partage
    d’une nouvelle vision que le pouvoir soit transféré de
    l’État-nation avec sa culture de guerre
    à un nouvel ordre basé sur la culture de
    la paix; c’est le droit et le devoir de ceux
    qui ont été élus pour représenter le
    le peuple au niveau local et régional,
    de prendre la plus haute responsabilité de
    gouvernance mondiale.

Les lecteurs de ce blog reconnaîtront ici la proposition dans le blog du mois dernier d’un Conseil de sécurité des maires.

Je ne sais pas si ce sera à Porto Alegre, mais l’Amérique latine semble un endroit logique pour entamer le processus vers un nouvel ordre mondial. Après tout, ce sont les Forums sociaux mondiaux nés au Brésil qui nous ont donné notre slogan: “Un autre monde est possible”.

The International Day of Peace

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The International Day of Peace (IDP), as officially proclaimed by the United Nations, is certainly the most universal action for peace in our times, and there is no doubt that it contributes greatly to the consciousness throughout the world that we need to turn from the culture of war to a culture of peace.

With this in mind it would be good to be able to measure the IDP actions each year, to know if they are increasing or not, and to know if this is occuring throughout the world, or more in some regions than in others.

During the first decade of this century, extensive international surveys were conducted by the Culture of Peace Initiative (see suveys from 2005 and 2009 as documented in Wikipedia), but they were discontinued, and there was nothing to replace them until 2017 when I conducted the first IDP survey from CPNN, searching for articles by Google and using other, less complete surveys.

This is now the third time that I have done the survey – not an easy task requiring something like 100 hours of labor – and I continue to find hundreds of events throughout the world, with the largest number from USA/Canada and Western Europe.

There is no doubt that, despite my best efforts, we continue to under-estimate the number and scope of actions involved. Many actions are not put on the internet. In addition to the languages recognzed by the United Nations (English, French, Russian, Arabic, Chinese and Spanish), I have searched via Google in Ukrainian, German and Portuguese, but no doubt there are actions described in articles in other languages as well.

There are other surveys of IDP events, but it is difficult to assess their data in some cases.

Pathways to Peace, the successor to the Culture of Peace Initiative, provides a map where people can enter their actions for the IDP. This year’s map has 642 entries, but perhaps half of them are from 2018, and perhaps half of the entries from 2019 are marked as meditation (not action in the sense defined by CPNN). The others from 2019 that are marked as music, march or multiple actions have been included in the CPNN survey.

The Campaign for Nonviolence lists CNV 3314 total actions, mostly in the United States, but this includes multiple actions by the 205 sites listed on their map. I have included all the 205 sites in the CPNN data.

One Day One Choir says that for the International Day of Peace “since we started in 2014, more than a million people around the world have connected with us to sing for peace and unity,” There are almost a thousand entries on their map of the world, but I could not use the data because it seems to be an accumulaton of all the events since 2014, with no indication in what year or years the action occurred.

The website of Montessori schools says that “In 2017, “Sing Peace” involved over 150,000 children from some 65 different countries.” The site provides a listing of 1141 schools “signed up to sing” and these are shown on a map of the world,, but as in the case of OneDayOneChoir, it is not clear if this is an accumulation of data over many years or if it refers to actions in 2019.

In addition, I should mention the website of Peace One Day which states that “throughout the years, millions of people have been active on Peace Day in every country of the world. . . In 2016, after several years work with global management consulting firm McKinsey & Company, it was estimated that 2.2 billion people had been exposed to the Peace Day message, that 940 million were aware of the day and that 16 million behaved more peacefully as a result.” But since the website provides no listing or source for particular events, I don’t see how its claims. can be verified.

Failing to realize that the data from One Day One Choir and Montessori Sing Peace were not necessarily up-to-date, I included their data in the totals last year (2018). For that reason it makes no sense to compare this year’s CPNN total of 655 to last year’s total of 835. Although it is not possible to be precise, it seems likely that the number of IDP actions listed on CPNN might be as much as doubled if it were possible to obtain up-to-date information from One Day One Choir and the Montessori Schools.

Despite the incompleteness of the quantitative data, there is plenty of qualitative information to be found in the CPNN survey, as described in this month’s CPNN bulletin, and I think this justifies the labor involved. For example, it turns out that data cited from Colombia, Democratic Republic of Congo, France, Ukraine, and Yemen are not reflected in the other surveys mentioned above.

Imagining peace: Latin America

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In 2007, I tried to imagine how the world would make a transition to a culture of peace in the year 2027 and I started to write a novella, I have seen the promised land.

In making the scenario, I imagined that the most important point in the transition would occur in Porto Alegre, Brazil, at a world-wide meeting of peace cities.

Now 10 years later, returning from visits to Brazil and Mexico, I pose the question: if today I were to imagine the transition to a culture of peace, would I still consider that Latin America, and Brazil in particular would play a central role?

If we look only at national governments, it would seem doubtful. Leaders who might have shown some sympathy with a culture of peace are gone, Hugo Chavez in Venezuela, Lula in Brazil and Fidel in Cuba, and their countries are moving to the right. This trend is not limited to Latin America. We have Trump, Putin, Duterte, Erdogan, rise of right-wing, even fascist parties in Europe, loss of the leadership of Mandela and Mbeki in South Africa, fading hopes that were raised by the Arab spring, and lack of any movement in Asia towards a culture of peace. Some might say it is the end of democracy, although I see it more limited as the loss of bourgeois democracy. After all, national elections are now almost solely determined by big money, and big money corrupts. To find progress towards true democracy it is necessary to look at a more local level.

As readers of this blog know, I believe that we cannot achieve a culture of peace through the system of nation-states, so the loss of bourgeois democracy at the national level is not necessarily a negative development. In fact, I interpret it as another sign that the American empire and the global system of states devoted to the culture of war is beginning to collapse.

But are we developing at a local level a new system of global governance to replace the present system when it collapses?

My recent visits to Mexico and Brazil, along with a visit a year ago to Colombia, give me some cause for optimism. Audiences in these countries, especially students, were enthusiastic to hear a message quoting the World Social Forum that “another world is possible” and emphasizing the old slogan of “think global, act local.” And, as described in this month’s CPNN bulletin, I found many local inititives underway that contribute to a culture of peace, including participative budgeting, restorative justice, struggle against the violence against women, and the development of city peace commissions.

I hope to return to Latin America next year and hope to find that these initiatives are continuing to develop. If so, may they serve as a model for other parts of the world.

If I were writing a utopian novella today, would I still imagine the culture of peace being born in Latin America. The answer is “Yes!”

What happens after peace accords are signed

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Now that there is a ceasefire in Colombia, as described in this month’s bulletin of CPNN, the question arises whether a culture of peace can be maintained afterwards.

When I was working on the culture of peace in UNESCO, I experienced a similar situation in two countries, El Salvador and Mozambique. Both of them emerged with peace accords in the early 1990’s after civil wars comparable to that in Colombia. In both we established national culture of peace programs to maintain the peace afterwards. They were major efforts, as I will describe, but ultimately they failed. Now, twenty five years later, both El Salvador and Mozambique are once again descending into violence, verging once again on civil war.

Why did they fail?

First, consider the efforts. The program in El Salvador is described in a journal article, available on the Internet, written by the three of us who managed the program. To quote from its conclusion: the program transformed “conflict into cooperation by engaging those previously in violent conflict in the joint planning and implementation of human development projects of benefit to all. . .. [it] developed both a set of guidelines accepted by all parties to the previous violent conflict, and institutionalized these guidelines in a National Coordination Council and its Executive Committee which ensure that they are put into practice. In particular, the guidelines are being followed in the implementation of project 507/ELS/01, the production of daily radio broadcasts and non-formal education campaigns for the most needy and neglected women in the country. In the course of the working out of this project, during the period from the summer of 1994 to the present (spring of 1996) the participants, representing the government, community radio stations and nongovernmental organizations including those associated with the FMLN, have internalized the basic principles and guidelines of a culture of peace. While at first they distrusted each other to the point that UNESCO had to play the role of arbitrator and mediator, they have since learned to negotiate and arrived at the point of regular concerted decision-making. Daily radio broadcasts are now being produced which reflect the fruits of this process of dialogue, participation and concertation and which up until now have been well-produced and well-received despite time pressures and the demanding schedules of radio broadcasting. These broadcasts are carried by 24 radio stations around the country, as well as in marketplaces, and they are accompanied by the work of 64 correspondents in the various communities who monitor the broadcasts and provide information from their communities to the technical team that creates the programmes.

The radio project was only one of 20 human development projects in El Salvador that were developed by the method of concertation described above.

In Mozambique, a similar process of concertation between ex-enemies resulted in the elaboration of ten human development projects with rural women, demobilized soldiers, schools, youth, mass media, community leaders, etc.

The process worked. Hoping to develop their country, the ex-enemies could be brought together and could work together.

But the programmes did not work. The Member States of UNESCO refused to fund the projects, preferring to put their development funds into projects that they could manage themselves for political advantage (including, in some cases, corruption and exploitation).

Alvaro de Soto, who had mediated the El Salvador peace accords, warned us at the time that it could not work. As part of the accords, the US and Europe had promised to fund land reform and judicial reform in El Salvador, but afterwards they reneged and never provided the funds they had promised. By the way, the same thing happened with the peace accords that established Zimbabwe. The UK never came through with the money they promised as part of the accords, to buy land from the white farmers and distribute to the African farmers. Eventually, President Mugabe got tired of waiting and seized the land and Zimbabwe was punished by international sanctions.

In general, we came to realize that the powerful Member States of the UN do not want peace. They want to exploit the poor countries of the world and that requires the old method of the culture of war: “Divide and conquer.”

Hopefully, Colombia can learn from the failures of the past and achieve a sustainable peace. As I have suggested in my previous blog, “Advice to Colombia,” they need to develop a network of local peace committees and keep them strong and independent so that they do not have to depend solely on the national government or United Nations support. Those of us in other countries can help with direct people-to people support; as Amada Benavides says, “Peacebuilding moment starts just now. Today we need more support than ever.”

The Colombia Peace Process and Education for Peace

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Several years ago (September 2013 to be exact), I posed the question in this blog, “What Kind of Peace Education?” and responded that an effective program of peace education must begin by analyzing the culture of war. But this approach is strongly opposed by those who hold state power because, in fact, their power is based on that culture.

Therefore, it was a refreshing change to hear the discussions when I took part last month in the National Encounter for Peace Education for post-conflict Colombia. The people of Colombia know very well what is the culture of violence and war, as they have experienced it for many decades, and now that a peace accord is being reached, they want to change from that culture to a culture of peace.

An especially clear exposition of this kind of peace education is made by Alicia Cabezudo, who also took part in the Encounter. As she says in her essay, reprinted by CPNN, “violence, and especially the ‘culture of violence’ needs to be analyzed and studied in the content of education for peace because the concealment of violence in the educational system serves to legitimize violence and makes it more difficult to study and understand its causes and search for its roots. The analysis of violence, including the actors and the specific context is needed if we are to identify and select potential solutions to this violence.”

As Alicia says, “one of the characteristics of education for the Culture of Peace is the social construction of knowledge, following the educational precepts of the famous Brazilian educator Paulo Freire.” Education should be a process of democratic participation: “Not only teachers, but also student representatives, parents associations and relevant members of the education community should be involved in establishment of the curriculum and how it is taught.”

The National Encounter was organized in a culture of peace manner. Most of the time we sat in small circles in workshops, face-to-face, and exchanged ideas, listening to each other rather than “talking at each other.” As I remark in my description of the event, there was a remarkably high proportion of young people involved in these discussions. It is evident that the youth of Colombia wish to construct a new society of peace. And they realize that it must be “peace” in the broad sense, not just the absence of war but a culture of peace.

There was a rumor that President Santos might stop by the Encounter on his way back from Havana where he was taking part in the negotiations around the Peace Accord. After all, he was elected President on a platform of peace, and only a week before had taken part in a nationally televised program on peace education with some of the educators who organized our Encounter.

Although the peace initiatives of the national government are needed and applauded by the people, they realize full well, as Alicia insists, that this “should not be only an agreement between the government and the guerrillas or the paramilitaries – It is and should be an agreement of everyone. It is and should be an agreement in which the civil society participates actively. For that reason, it is an educational theme par excellence.”

The message that I brought to Colombia from South Africa (see my previous blog) was one that they were ready to hear and take seriously, that they should “develop a network of local peace committees and keep them strong and independent so that [they] do not have to depend solely on the national government to maintain the peace.”

As Alicia says, peace education has a crucial role in the peace process: “Peace Education should be used as a tool, a way to facilitate the return to peace at the territorial level; the democratization of the political, social and economic system, and the effective practice of social solidarity and equitable justice . . . Never before has a peace process after an armed conflict been accompanied simultaneously by a pedagogy of building a culture of peace as it is being discussed today in Colombia. It’s an opportunity that must not be wasted.”

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Le processus de paix en Colombie et l’éducation pour la paix

 Il y a plusieurs années (Septembre 2013 pour être exact), je posais la question dans ce blog: “Quelle éducation pour la paix?” et j’ai répondu qu’un programme efficace d’éducation pour la paix doit commencer par analyser la culture de guerre. Mais cette approche est fortement contestée par ceux qui tiennent le pouvoir de l’Etat parce que, en fait, leur pouvoir est fondé sur cette culture.

Par conséquent, ce fut un changement rafraîchissant que d’entendre les discussions lorsque je pris part le mois dernier à la Rencontre nationale pour l’éducation pour la paix en Colombie post-conflit.  Les Colombiens savent très bien ce qu’est la culture de la violence et de la guerre, parce qu’ils l’ont vécue pendant de nombreuses décennies, et maintenant que l’accord de paix est atteint, ils veulent passer de cette culture à une culture de paix.

Un exposé particulièrement clair de ce genre d’éducation pour la paix a été fait par Alicia Cabezudo, qui a également pris part à la rencontre. Comme elle le dit dans son essai, réimprimé par CPNN, “la violence, et en particulier la« culture de la violence »doit être analysée et étudiée dans le contenu de l’éducation pour la paix parce que la dissimulation de la violence dans le système éducatif sert à la légitimer, ce qui la rend plus difficile à étudier, à comprendre ses causes et à rechercher ses racines.  L’analyse de la violence, y compris les acteurs et le contexte spécifique est nécessaire si nous voulons identifier et sélectionner les solutions possibles à cette violence.”

Comme le dit Alicia, “l’une des caractéristiques de l’éducation pour la culture de paix est la construction sociale de la connaissance, en suivant les préceptes éducatifs du célèbre pédagogue brésilien Paulo Freire”:  L’éducation devrait être un processus de participation démocratique: “Non seulement les enseignants, mais aussi les représentants des étudiants, les associations de parents et les membres concernés de la communauté de l’éducation doivent être impliqués dans l’établissement du programme et comment il est enseigné.”

La rencontre nationale a été organisée dans l’esprit de la culture de paix. La plupart du temps nous nous sommes assis en petits cercles dans les ateliers, en face-à-face, et avons échangé des idées en s’écoutant les uns les autres, plutôt que de parler sans s’écouter.  Comme je le remarque dans ma description de l’événement, il y avait une proportion remarquablement élevée de jeunes impliqués dans ces discussions. Il est évident que les jeunes de Colombie souhaitent construire une nouvelle société de paix. Et ils se rendent compte que ce doit être la «paix» au sens large, et pas seulement l’absence de guerre, mais une vraie culture de paix.

Une rumeur a couru que le président Santos pourrait passer par notre conference sur le chemin du retour de La Havane où il prenait part aux négociations autour de l’accord de paix. Après tout, il a été élu président sur une plateforme de la paix, et seulement une semaine avant il avait pris part à un programme télévisé à l’échelle nationale sur l’éducation de la paix avec certains des éducateurs qui ont organisé notre rencontre.

Bien que les initiatives de paix du gouvernement national soient nécessaires et aient été applaudies par le peuple, celui-ci réalise très bien, comme insiste Alicia, que ce “ne doit pas être seulement un accord entre le gouvernement et la guérilla ou les paramilitaires – Il est et doit être un accord de tout le monde. Il est et doit être un accord dans lequel la société civile participe activement. Pour cette raison, il est un thème éducatif par excellence.”

Comme écrit dans le blog de septembre, de mon voyage en Afrique du Sud, j’ai apporté un message aux gens de Colombie, un message qu’ils étaient prêts à entendre et à prendre au sérieux: “vous devez développer un réseau de comités de paix locaux et garder ces comités forts et indépendants afin de ne pas dépendre uniquement du gouvernement national pour maintenir la paix.”

Comme le dit Alicia, l’éducation pour la paix a un rôle crucial dans le processus de paix: “L’education pour la Paix doit être utilisée comme un outil, un moyen de faciliter le retour à la paix au niveau territorial; la démocratisation du système politique, économique et sociale, et la pratique effective de la solidarité sociale et de la justice équitable. . . . Jamais auparavant après un conflit armé un processus de paix a été accompagné simultanément par une pédagogie de la construction d’une culture de paix comme il est discuté aujourd’hui en Colombie. C’est une occasion qui ne doit pas être manquée.”

Advice to Colombia for the Peace Process

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As described in this month’s CPNN bulletin, Colombia is preparing for peace as the peace talks advance between the Government and FARC. Local and regional peace initiatives, as well as a national move for peace education, are taking place in this context. It seems that Colombia will achieve peace accords that allow the election of a unity government that represents all of the people. But we should ask the question about what comes next. Can one trust that a unity government will continue the serve the people, or will it become corrupt?

I am reminded of the situation 25 years ago in South Africa when the peace talks between the apartheid government of South Africa and Nelson Mandela inspired the entire country to prepare for peace. At that time a network of local peace committees was established. At their peak in the early 1990’s, there were 11 regional committees and over one hundred local peace committees, with an annual budget of almost $12 million which enabled the hiring of full time staff for regional offices. These committees united representatives from political organizations, trade unions, business, churches, police and security forces to resolve disputes at local and regional levels. They engaged people directly in conflict management on a grass roots level throughout the country.

Earlier this year, I had the chance to spend a month in South Africa and to meet with social activists who had been active in the anti-apartheid movement. The told me that they regret now that they abandoned the network of local peace committees, because the national government has become so corrupt they can no longer work with it. The corruption is exemplified by the alleged involvement of Cyril Ramaphosa in the massacre of striking mine workers three years ago.

The massacre took place in 2012 at the Lonmin platinum mines near Marikana, South Africa where 41 striking mineworkers were killed and many more injured, mostly by the police, many of them shot in the back. The strike was carried out by workers opposed to the leadership of their union, the National Union of Mineworkers (NUM), which they considered to have sold out the company interests. The NUM was founded by Cyril Ramaphosa, after which Ramaphosa became the leader of COSATU, the national organization of trade unions, and then leader of the ANC, and now Vice President of South Africa.

Most recently, according to an article in Jeune Afrique, the leader of EFF, the new political party opposed to the ANC, announced the filing of a legal complaint against Ramaphosa, for having had “a decisive effect on the final decision of deliberating the mass murder of the miners at Marikana”. At the time of the massacre, Ramaphosa, in addition to being Vice-President of the country and founder of the National Union of Mineworkers, was also a shareholder in Lonmin. Ramaphosa is accused by the leader of the radical left to have insisted that the police should break the strike. Although there was an official investigation after the massacre, its mandate did not allow it to investigate the role of government members in ordering the police action.

One year after the massacre, one commentator concluded: “Perhaps the most important lesson of Marikana is that the state can gun down dozens of black workers with little or no backlash from ‘civil society’, the judicial system or from within the institutions that supposedly form the bedrock of democracy. What we have instead is the farcical Farlam commission, an obvious attempt to clear the state’s role in the massacre and prevent any sort of real investigation into the actions of the police on that day. In other words, the state can get away with mass murder, with apparent impunity in terms of institutional conceptions of justice and political accountability.”

Meanwhile, Ramaphosa has become one of South Africa’s richest men, with Forbes Magazine estimating his wealth at $275 million. Many believe that he is in line to be elected the next President of South Africa.

Hopefully, the activists in South Africa can revive a network of local peace committees. And hence, my advice to the people of Colombia: develop a network of local peace committees and keep them strong and independent so that you do not have to depend solely on the national government to maintain the peace.

Leadership of the Global South will be difficult for the North to accept

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Is it by chance that the leadership for the culture of peace is coming from the continents of Latin America and Africa, continents of the Global South? The detailed evidence for this may be found in many CPNN articles, some of which are summarized in the CPNN bulletins for March 1 and April 1 this year, as well as bulletins from previous years (February 1, 2013 and August 1, 2012).

It is not by chance that these are the continents that have suffered for centuries from the colonialism of the North: Africa from European colonialism and Latin America from US domination and military interventions?

It is not by chance that many of their best leaders were assassinated, directly or indirectly, by the colonial powers? I am thinking Samora Machel, Patrice Lumumba and Amilcar Cabral in Africa, or Salvador Allende, Che Guevara and Maurice Bishop in Latin America.

The transition to a culture of peace requires a complete reversal of the domination and exploitation of poor states of the South by the rich states of the North. It is by means of the culture of war that the North has amassed its wealth. And it is their continuing profit from the culture of war that makes it impossible for them to move towards a culture of peace. On the other hand, Africans and Latin Americans have everything to gain by such a complete reversal.

The coming years will also be difficult for the North, because, over time, they will continue to lose not only their power, but also their wealth that has been maintained through the culture of war. There is a great danger, more and more visible in national elections in Europe and North America, that voters will turn to fascist political parties in their desperate search for a solution.

But perhaps the most difficult thing for the North will be the psychological aspect of this historical transition. The people of the North, particularly their intellectuals and political leaders have developed a racist belief in their superiority. The loss of that illusion will be a difficult thing to swallow, as the leadership of history passes into the hands of the people of the South.

Rather than trying to save the rest of the world, progressives in the North should try to save their own societies from racist and chauvinist illusions, and from economies based on exploitation. In this regard they should adopt some of the approaches suggested by Johan Galtung in his analysis of the Fall of the American Empire: to work at the local municipal level instead of trying to change national policies, to organize local cooperatives and local food production instead of importation and agro-business, local banks instead of investment banks, local construction of affordable housing to provide jobs as well as housing.

The transition to a culture of peace needs to be a universal struggle. By working locally for a culture of peace, the people of the North can take their place along with activists of the South in this universal, historical, nonviolent, yet revolutionary struggle.

 

Can a Culture of Peace be created in only one zone of the world?

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Again this month we indicate in the CPNN bulletin that Latin America and the Caribbean continue to be in the vanguard of the Global Movement for a Culture of Peace.  This month it is the national governments that have taken the leadership with their declaration in Havana that the region will be a “zone of peace” privileging the development of a culture of peace according to the principles in the UN Declaration .

At first glance this seems to contradict my contention that a culture of peace cannot be created by national governments because they have become inextricably linked to the culture of war.

But on further reflection, the problem is not so simple.  Governments in Latin America have tried to move towards a culture of peace other times in the past, only to be attacked and prevented from doing so by intervention from the United States.  The most extreme examples were Cuba in 1961 and Chile in 1973.  And now, even as I write this, there is strong evidence that “state within a state” forces in the United States, perhaps without the knowledge of President Obama, are moving the destabilize Venezuela because its policies to do not fit with the American culture of war.  Cuba, after the Bay of Pigs invasion of 1961, installed a socialist culture of war in defense.  And Chile, after the overthrow of Allende in 1973, established a classic fascist dictature under Pinochet.  Is Venezuela destined to suffer a similar fate?

Probably one of the reasons that some forces in the United States want to destabilize Venezuela is to stop its leadership in development of the Banco del Sur which would make South America independent of the US dollar and its financial institutions.  The Banco del Sur was officially launched last year in Caracas by Brazil, Bolivia, Ecuador and Argentina, as well as Venezuela.  So far, however, it is only a small step towards economic independence.

It seems that the global culture of war, headed by the American empire, will not allow the establishment of culture of peace at any national level.

However, even if Latin America is blocked from installing a culture of peace at national levels in its own zone, its attempts to move in this direction will have a lasting effect on the consciousness of its citizens and we may be confident that it is there, in consciousness, that history will ultimately be determined.  What is needed is to reinforce this consciousness by the development of local culture of peace institutions.  A start was made in this direction in Brazil 10 years ago, but was not sustained.  Let us hope that the process can be re-started.

If Latin American countries can continue to push for a culture of peace, and if they can develop a certain economic independence from the American empire, they will be in a good position when the empire crashes to support the cities of Latin America for a revision of the UN Security Council and to return the power of peace to the people rather than the nation states.  I have imagined this scenario in The Promised Land.

Latin America: The leading edge

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Latin America continues to take the lead in the transition to a culture of peace.

As indicated by this month’s CPNN Bulletin, the continent was the first to establish city culture of peace commissions, as well as city commissions for components such as human rights in Sao Paulo and sustainable development in Aguascalientes.  Also the invocation of the culture of peace as the basis for the Union of South American States (UNASUR) was a pioneering development.

Now, we can add to this list of innovations, the development of the culture of peace at a regional level in Brazil, Peru and Mexico.  As discussed, this is an important new step since a region can be self-sustaining with regard to its agricultural basis, unlike the city.

In fact, Latin America has always been at the leading edge.  The initial concept came in 1986 from an initiative in Peru headed by the Jesuit scholar Felipe MacGregor.  The first national project was in El Salvador in 1993, and that experience was the basis for the adoption of the culture of peace programme by the Executive Board and General Conference of UNESCO.  The further development of the culture of peace as a social movement came in 1994 from a  “Group of Reflection” of Latin American experts in association with UNESCO.  It was the representatives from Latin American countries at the United Nations in New York that began in 1995 the annual resolutions which led eventually to the UN Declaration and Programme of Action on a Culture of Peace.  And the initial call for an International Year for the Culture of Peace came from a meeting of Latin American newspaper editors in Puebla, Mexico, in 1997.

The second and third largest number of signatures on the Manifesto 2000, by which individuals promised to support a culture of peace in their daily lives, came from Brazil (15 million) and Colombia (11 million).

During the International Decade for a Culture of Peace from 2001-2010, the rich countries, including Europe and the United States and their allies, refused to support the culture of peace, including its annual UN resolutions.  On the other hand, the countries of Latin America were outstanding in their support.  For example, at the midpoint of the Decade, the UN resolution was signed by the following countries of Latin America and the Caribbean: Antigua and Barbuda, Argentina, Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Boliva, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Cuba, Dominica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Grenada, Guatemala, Guyana, Haiti, Jamaica, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Granadines, Suriname and Trinidad and Tobago.

Latin America has taken the lead in a number of other related initiatives.  The Earth Summit that took place in Brazil in 1992 was the turning point in the development of sustainable development.  And the practice of participatory budgeting which is revolutionizing democratic participation began as an initiative of the Workers Party of Brazil when they were in charge of the city government of Porto Allegre.

I expect that the leadership from Latin America will continue.  For this reason, I wrote in my utopian novel, I Have Seen the Promised Land, that the key moment in the transition of the United Nations from control by nation states to control by city and regional governments would come at a global meeting that takes place in Porto Allegre, Brazil, in the year 2021.  I wrote that five years ago, and now we have only eight more years before 2021.  But so far, given the continuing leadership from Latin America, I would still make the same prediction.